The Crowded Animated Feature Problem

Posted by Michael Dance

Kris Tapley over at In Contention has alerted me to an interesting problem: there's too many good animated films out there this year.

With so many -- sixteen eligible altogether -- the field will probably be expanded to five nominees and not the typical three (there was also five in 2002, but that was the only other year). The sixteen are:

9
A Christmas Carol
Astro Boy
Battle for Terra
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Evangelion 1.0: You Are (Not) Alone
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs
Mary and Max
Monsters vs. Aliens
Planet 51
Ponyo
The Princess and the Frog
Tinker Bell and the Lost Treasure
Up

The ones that you think can be ruled out probably can be: Astro Boy, Battle for Terra, Planet 51, whatever Evangelion and Mary and Max are, and Tinker Bell and the Lost Treasure (which is getting a qualifying run in L.A. but is otherwise strictly direct-to-DVD stuff). And despite Ice Age and Monsters vs. Aliens both being massive hits, critics responded with a resounding "meh" to both of them. So that narrows it down to eight:

9
A Christmas Carol
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Ponyo
The Princess and the Frog
Up

But where to go from there? Here's a rundown of each film's strengths and weaknesses...

9: great animation, adapted from a short that was nominated for the Best Animated Short Oscar. OK but not great box office; more negative reviews than anticipated.

A Christmas Carol: Robert Zemeckis's latest 3D animation movie, with Jim Carrey as Scrooge.

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs: the fall's surprise animated hit, getting great responses, momentum on its side.

Coraline: Released early in the year but one of the best films of the year. I'll be extremely pissed off if they forget this.

Fantastic Mr. Fox: unlike all the other films, directed by Wes Anderson, star-studded.

Ponyo: small box office, but it was directed by Hayao Miyazaki, and he won for Spirited Away.

The Princess and the Frog: if it were the early 1990s, this would be the frontrunner: a hand-drawn Disney animated epic. Those days are over, but how can you not nominate this?

Up the out-and-out frontrunner, this one may even get nominated for Best Picture.

Conclusions:

9 seems a little weak; voters will probably go for Coraline instead. A Christmas Carol just looks kind of...not great. Gut feeling. On the other hand, Princess and the Frog will be forefront on everyone's mind thanks to its holiday release, so I bet it stays. Ditto for on-the-fence Fantastic Mr. Fox, but if the reviews are bad, it's out. So what are my final predictions?

Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Ponyo
The Princess and the Frog
Up

Why no Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs? If the Academy voted right now, they'd include it, no problem. But voting is a long ways off, and I think when push comes to shove they'll go with more "prestige" movies. If Fantastic Mr. Fox disappoints, switch them. But right now, those are my five.

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