Golden Globe Predictions

Posted by Michael Dance

The Golden Globes are tonight on NBC at 8:00 pm EST, and as a little experiment, I'll be live-blogging on here. Never live-blogged before, so I apologize in advance if the results are schizophrenic.

Before they arrive, though, here are my predictions for every single film category. I haven't paid as close attention to specifically the Globes as I should have, so we'll see how well I do.

Best Picture - Drama
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
alt. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Slumdog has the momentum, but Button has the grandeur and the stars -- two of the Globe voters' favorite things.

Best Picture - Comedy or Musical
VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
alt. Mamma Mia!

I'd love to see In Bruges make a surprise showing, but Vicky Cristina seemed to have wide support; both Rebecca Hall and Javier Bardem were nominated as well.

Best Director
DANNY BOYLE, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
alt. David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Another Slumdog/Button showdown, and Boyle is more well-liked than Fincher.

Best Screenplay
SIMON BEAUFOY, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
alt. Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon

Button is more highly regarded for its makeup, effects, stars, and epic sweep than actual story, which many have remarked is derivative of Forrest Gump. So Frost/Nixon could sneak in.

Best Actor - Drama
SEAN PENN, MILK
alt. Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon

Here's the odd thing: Penn should be the frontrunner, but Milk was otherwise entirely snubbed by the Globes, so he's not. I still say he grabs it, but Langella has a major shot (and Rourke should have a major shot but is too much of an outsider in this race).

Best Actor - Comedy or Musical
DUSTIN HOFFMAN, LAST CHANCE HARVEY
alt. Colin Farrell, In Bruges

A weak category -- nominees Brendan Gleeson (In Bruges) and James Franco (Pineapple Express) are more supporting than lead. The winner of this award usually doesn't go on to be nominated for the Oscar, so Hoffman makes a lot of sense. No one else has a realistic shot.

Best Actress - Drama
ANNE HATHAWAY, RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
alt. Meryl Streep, Doubt

Streep might've been a shoo-in if everybody wasn't already voting for her for the category below. Angelina Jolie (Changeling) is the dark horse.

Best Actress - Comedy or Musical
MERYL STREEP, MAMMA MIA!
alt. Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky.

I think Streep has this one in the bag unless voters really liked Happy-Go-Lucky.

Best Supporting Actor
HEATH LEDGER, THE DARK KNIGHT
alt. Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder

Globe voters are in love with Downey. That said, can he break through Heath Ledger's legacy? He might, since -- like Milk -- The Dark Knight was snubbed in all other categories. (You should probably never count out Philip Seymour Hoffman in Doubt, either.)

Best Supporting Actress
VIOLA DAVIS, DOUBT
alt. Kate Winslet, The Reader

I say Davis surprises and sneaks in over favorite Kate Winslet. But I've been wrong before...many, many times.

Best Score
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
alt. Changeling

Not much reasoning behind this. I saw "Best Score," I thought "Benjamin Button," even though I can't really recall the scores of any of these movies.

Best Song
"THE WRESTLER," THE WRESTLER
alt. "Gran Torino," Gran Torino

"The Wrestler" is a great song and was written by Bruce Springsteen. Then again, "Gran Torino" was co-written by Clint Eastwood himself.

Best Animated Film
WALL-E
alt. Kung Fu Panda

Wall-E's got it in the bag.

Best Foreign Film
I'VE LOVED YOU SO LONG
alt. Gomorrah

Unfortunately, I haven't seen any films in this category this year. These two seem to have the highest profile.

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