First Best Picture Predictions

Awards Daily's currently running a poll on what folks think will be nominated for Best Picture. So far, the top ten results are:

-The Hurt Locker (8%)
-Nine (8%)
-Up in the Air (8%)
-An Education (7%)
-The Lovely Bones (7%)
-Precious (7%)
-A Serious Man (6%)
-Up (6%)
-Inglourious Basterds (5%)
-Invictus (5%)

Not a bad list, not bad at all. But presented with so many options (the poll lists 57 films), I was so inspired by the possibilities that I've decided to make my own list.

The first step, in my mind, is to understand that even with ten nominees instead of five, the Oscars are still the Oscars. The Academy still voted for A Beautiful Mind over The Fellowship of the Ring. They still voted for The Reader over The Dark Knight. And they still voted for Shakespeare in Love over Saving Private Ryan.

Thus, I doubt something like A Serious Man -- which from its trailer looks like one of the Coen brothers' patented weird comedies, in other words, not an awards-style Coen film -- will make the cut. On the other hand, Inglourious Basterds seems like the kind of film that might. The story has appeal with the Academy, and the movie was an out-and-out hit in the U.S.

And some you just have to go with because they scream Oscar. We do this every year and a few always get shaved off, always look like stupid choices in retrospect -- but how can I bet against Nine, with Daniel Day-Lewis and Rob Marshall, or Invictus, with Clint Eastwood, Matt Damon, and Morgan Freeman? Damon already faltered with The Informant, and his Green Zone got pushed to 2010. Invictus has got to be the one, right?

Anyway, enough. Here's my first, rough, inaccurate prediction list:

-Up
-Nine
-Invictus
-Get Low
-Precious
-Up in the Air
-A Single Man
-An Education
-Inglourious Basterds
-Where the Wild Things Are

First: what am I snubbing from the first list? The Hurt Locker, A Serious Man, and The Lovely Bones. Some people would say I'm foolish to count out Peter Jackson -- The Lovely Bones might very well be huge, and the guy even got nominated for a Golden Globe for King Kong -- but I don't think it will make it. Ditto for Avatar, which has a lot of support that I think is misguided. I've seen the sixteen-minute sneak peak, and while the visuals are arguably special (emphasis on arguably), the story, tone, and acting is not.

The Hurt Locker is a lot of folks' favorite, which is why it's sticking around these lists. But what will the Academy think? Some will see it as just another action movie; some won't see it at all. Besides, there's got to be a few things people get pissed about when the nominations are announced. It's not the Oscars otherwise.

So what do I include? A Single Man, which the Weinstein Company picked up from the festivals despite barely having any money, because they believe it can bring home awards; Get Low, a dark horse period dramedy starring Robert Duvall and Bill Murray; and Where the Wild Things Are.

Yes, Where the Wild Things Are. That's my big, very foolish gamble at the moment. I just think it will be a lot bigger and a lot more beloved than everybody in Hollywood is assuming at the moment. We'll see whether or not I'm right in a month.

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