Entertainment Weekly's Oscar Predictions

Entertainment Weekly is notorious for being a rock-solid predictor of Oscar nominations, rarely matching less than 4 out of 5 for each category (and often getting them exactly right). Only one thing, though: this year's list of predictions was buried near the back of the magazine and given absolutely no ado at all -- not even a tiny little mention on the cover. They better still do their big Oscar issue when the nominations are announced, or I might cry.

Anyway, here are the predictions, courtesy of columnist Dave Karger:

BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher, Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan, Dark Knight
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

BEST ACTOR
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

BEST ACTRESS
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Taraji P. Henson, Benjamin Button
Viola Davis, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Jenny Lumet, Rachel Getting Married
Woody Allen, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon, Wall-E

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Eric Roth, Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
David Hare, The Reader
Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire

I haven't written any "official" predictions yet, but just looking this over, I would make a few changes. Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler is looking like a longshot; Amy Adams for Doubt is the safer choice, especially when you consider the Academy's favoritism for pretty young girls in the Supporting Actress category (the irony being that Tomei won her Oscar in 1996 partly thanks to that phenomenon). However, I still think Rosemarie DeWitt from Rachel Getting Married is a viable dark horse.

The Wrestler does have a good shot, however, at an Original Screenplay nomination. But who could it replace? Possibly Mike Leigh -- but then again, the Academy really likes him, as evidenced by his surprise Best Director nomination for Vera Drake a few years back. Could they repeat, nominated him for Director but not Screenplay, and tossing out one of the established shoo-ins like Ron Howard?

Lots of what ifs, but that's the name of the game.

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